Preview: US inflation (CPI) data due Tue, Nov 10th. Forecasts for BTC, gold, S&P 500, and more.



• Economists predict October's US consumer price index (CPI) will rise 0.3% month-on-month (Oct 2026 vs. Sept 2026)

• Year-on-year CPI will not be published as Oct 2025 CPI was unavailable due to US government shutdown

• Inflation data set to inform markets about prospects of Fed rate hike in December 2026 (84% chance)

• Higher-than-expected CPI figures should boost US dollar; drag down gold, stocks, indexes, cryptos

• Lower-than-expected CPI figures should weigh down US dollar; boost gold, stocks, indexes, cryptos

• Scroll down for Bloomberg forecasts: CPI reactions for 14 major assets

WSOT 2026: Global Assets Showdown began Nov 5th



The monthly US inflation data could rock trillions of dollars across global markets.



It's not just everyday folks who are wary about inflation.

Traders, investors, even central bankers and policymakers obsess about rising prices of goods and services, and its impact on the global economy.

Today (Tuesday, November 10), the world's biggest economy is set to unveil its latest monthly inflation data.

First, a quick recap to get you up to speed.

Why is the US inflation data so important?

Inflation is widely measured via the Consumer Price Index (CPI).



1) Inflation drives Fed rate decisions

Inflation directly influences what the Federal Reserve a.k.a. The Fed - the world's most influential central bank - does with US interest rates.

When inflation runs hot, the Fed may raise rates, making borrowing more expensive and potentially cooling price gains in stock markets, gold, even cryptos.



2) Market volatility spikes on CPI announcements

The CPI announcements are must-watch events, and can trigger huge prices moves across asset classes - bonds, stocks, FX, gold, even cryptos.

These big moves create rare trading opportunities as markets react sharply to whether inflation comes in higher or lower than expected, and how the CPI figures could influence the Fed's next moves.



3) Inflation trends affect your own spending

Rising inflation affects financial markets, government policies, and even your own budget.

For instance, higher grocery prices translate into more money needed to fill up the fridge, and perhaps in turn less spending on your daily coffee fix.

Understanding CPI helps you position not just your trades and investments, but even household budget as well.

CPI forecasts by economists

Here's what experts are forecasting for this top-tier economic data release:



• CPI month-on-month (Oct 2026 vs. Sept 2026): 0.3%

If so, 0.3% growth would be slower than September's 0.6% month-on-month advance.

• Core CPI (excluding more volatile food and energy prices) month-on-month: 0.2%

If so, 0.2% would be slightly lower than September's 0.3% m/m advance.

In short, markets are expecting US inflation to grow at a slower pace in October.



IMPORTANT: The year-on-year (Oct 2026 vs. Oct 2025) CPI figures will not be released, given that October 2025 CPI figures were unavailable due to the US government shutdown back then.



Potential Near-Term Scenarios

• An upside shocker in the US CPI figures should translate into a stronger US dollar, as markets would be prompted to fully expect a Fed rate hike in December 2026 - those odds currently stand at 84%.Such prospects should drag down precious metals (Gold, even Silver - XAGUSDT ), along with G10 FX pairs such as EURUSD , GBPUSD , etc.), stock indices, and even major cryptos.

• Lower-than-expected US CPI figures may boost major assets ranging from US stock indices (SP500 to NAS100) to gold (XAUUSDT). Risk assets such as cryptos may also take delight in such a report.

^{READ MORE (published Mon, Nov 9th): Watch Gold and Bitcoin during CPI release}



How are major assets expected to react to the incoming CPI data?



These % forecasts are for the 6 hours after the CPI release @ 1:30 PM UTC Tue, Nov 10th:

• Bitcoin ( BTCUSDT ): as much as 2.5% up / 1% down

• Ethereum ( ETHUSDT ): as much as 4.1% up / 1.6% down

• Ripple ( XRPUSDT ): as much as 3.3% up / 1.7% down

• Solana ( SOLUSDT ): as much as 3.6% up / 1.5% down

• Gold ( XAUUSDT ): as much as 0.9% up / 1% down

• Silver ( XAGUSDT ): as much as 2.2% up / 2.4% down

• Brent Oil ( BZUSDT ): as much as 1.2% up / 0.6% down

• WTI Crude Oil ( CLUSDT ): as much as 1.3% up / 0.7% down

• Euro vs. US Dollar (EURUSDUSDT) : as much as 0.3% up / 0.3% down

• British Pound vs. US Dollar ( GBPUSDUSDT) : as much as 0.25% up / 0.4% down

• US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen: (USDJPYUSDT) : as much as 0.25% up / 0.2% down

• S&P 500 ( SP500 ): as much as 0.2% up / 0.7% down

• Nasdaq 100 ( NAS100 ): as much as 0.4% up / 1% down

• Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJ30 ): as much as 0.5% up / 1% down

Compare Bloomberg model forecasts for October CPI vs. the September CPI release (published Oct 13th, 2026)

Are markets forecasting bigger price moves for today's CPI report?





DISCLAIMER:

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.